Investigation of Non-Linear Relationship between the Expenditures of Social Security Organization and Economic Growth in IRAN

Alireaza Khosravi, Asghar Hasanpour, MirHojjat NajafiNasab, Ali Vafamand

Abstract


The current paper is aimed at finding long run and short run causality relations between the expenditures of the Social Security Organization and the economic growth for Iran within 1961-2015. The indices used in the present study are the annual expenditures of the Social Security Organization, the number of the people under the coverage of this organization, number of labor force, amount of capital and the variable of the GDP growth as an index for the economic growth of Iran. The result of Hsiao's Causality Test is an indicative of the existence of a unilateral causality relation from the variable of the economic growth towards the variable of the annual expenditures of the Social Security Organization in the short run. It is while the reverse of this relation is not true. It means that there is no causality relation from the expenditures of the organization to the economic growth in the short run. To determine the existence of a long run relation between the above-mentioned variables the Johansen – Juselius co-integration test was used. This test confirms the existence of a long run relation between the expenditures of the organization and the economic growth. Finally, convergence vector also was extracted. The ECM model also indicates the existence of a convergence relation between economic growth and the expenditures of the organization in which the coefficient of the convergence vector is 0/185.it is also determined that based on the STR model the effectiveness of the annual expenditures of the organization on the economic growth is very high.

 

JEL Classification: F22, H55, O15


Keywords


Social Security Organization, Economic Growth, Hsiao Causality, Co- integration.

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